ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan represents about 48% of people living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region. The World Bank reported the figure in its October 2026 regional economic update. The lender measured poverty using the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level rose 6.4 percentage points between 2018-19 and 2024-25. That increase made Pakistan the largest contributor to extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen together account for another 47% of people living below the $3 threshold across the region. Alongside Pakistan, those three countries represent about 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. The region now contains roughly 14% of the world’s people living in extreme poverty. Only Sub-Saharan Africa holds a larger share. MENAAP also remains the only region where poverty exceeds pre-pandemic levels and continues to increase.
Pakistan’s poverty picture also deteriorated at the higher $4.20 daily threshold used for lower-middle-income economies. The share below that line rose 3.2 percentage points between 2018-19 and 2024-25. The rate reached about 48% in 2024, compared with 44.7% in 2018. The regional assessment cited the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation and prolonged economic adjustment. It listed those shocks among the factors behind the country’s worsening poverty indicators.
Poverty burden rises after years of economic shocks
New household survey data also produced a major revision to regional poverty estimates earlier in 2026. Pakistan’s updated figures lifted MENAAP’s estimated 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%. The revision added about 21 million people to the region’s estimated extreme poverty count. By September 2026, MENAAP remained one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates above 5%. Sub-Saharan Africa was the other region above that level.
Pakistan’s economy has returned to positive growth, while poverty indicators remain elevated. The latest outlook put GDP growth at 3.7% in fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% in fiscal 2026-27. It estimated real GDP per person growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. The report put inflation at 7.1% for 2026 and projected 8.2% for 2027. The 2027 inflation forecast therefore stands above the estimate for 2026 despite continued economic growth.
Regional reclassification changes poverty comparisons
The 48% share also reflects a statistical change that reshaped the regional comparison. In September 2025, the lender’s statistical system moved Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. Pakistan’s government said the administrative change did not alter the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad said the new grouping changed regional poverty totals because Pakistan’s large population entered MENAAP calculations. The classification therefore affects how regional poverty shares are presented.
The October update also reported weaker economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026. It projected regional output to contract 2.1% after growth of 3.3% in 2025. Conflict and disruptions to energy, logistics and trade weighed on activity across several economies. Developing oil importers, including Pakistan, remained comparatively resilient within the regional outlook. The update projected 4.3% growth for that group in 2026. Higher food and energy costs continued to pressure household purchasing power across several countries.
